EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range during Friday's European session, holding above the mid-1.1300 area after reaching its lowest level since May 2025.
- Middle East tensions: Reports that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz have revived concerns about the durability of the interim US-Iran peace agreement.
- ECB communication: Despite raising its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at the June meeting, recent communication from several ECB policymakers has been interpreted as relatively dovish.
- ECB's Schnabel: ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated that the ECB's tightening cycle is not yet complete, emphasizing that stronger-than-expected economic performance and persistent inflation risks require continued vigilance. Her comments provide some support for the euro by signaling that additional policy tightening remains possible despite recent dovish messaging from other ECB officials.
- Fed's Goolsbee: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted the remarkable stability of the US labor market, noting that both hiring and layoffs have remained unusually low for more than a year.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure as renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations of a relatively more hawkish Federal Reserve continue to favor the US Dollar. While hawkish remarks from ECB officials such as Isabel Schnabel provide some support for the euro, the pair's broader outlook remains bearish unless Eurozone policy expectations strengthen further or US economic data begin to weaken materially.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair maintains a positive bias for a second consecutive session, trading around the 1.3200 level during Friday's European session.
- Political uncertainty: UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced under Burnham-led administration. Traders focus on who might become finance minister under Andy Burnham, the likely successor to Keir Starmer as PM.
- Brexit performance: Goldman Sachs estimates that the UK economy is now roughly 6% smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the European Union, compared with a previous estimate of 5% two years ago.
- Export performance: The UK's food and drink industry continues to struggle, with exports falling 4.8% year-over-year to their lowest first-quarter level in a decade.
- US consumer sentiment: With no major UK economic releases scheduled for Friday, attention will turn to the revised US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is holding onto modest gains, but political uncertainty and lingering structural concerns surrounding the UK economy continue to limit sterling's upside. With domestic data taking a back seat, the pair's near-term direction is likely to be driven by US economic releases and evolving expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold extends its intraday rebound after finding support around the $3,982-$3,983 area, climbing toward the upper end of Friday's trading range.
- US inflation: The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose to 4.1% year-over-year in May from 3.3% in April.
- Oil prices: Analysts believe inflation may have peaked or is close to peaking after crude oil prices retreated to pre-conflict levels following the preliminary US-Iran peace agreement.
- Fed's Williams: New York Fed President John Williams stated that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to bring inflation back toward the central bank's target, although he now expects the 2% objective to be achieved by 2028 rather than 2027.
- Markets pricing: According to CME FedWatch, investors now see a 63.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: Gold is recovering from recent lows, but the broader outlook remains challenging as stronger US inflation and persistent expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to weigh on the precious metal. While easing energy prices may eventually help moderate inflation, XAU/USD is likely to remain sensitive to incoming US economic data and shifts in interest rate expectations.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading around $70.00 per barrel during Friday's European session, retreating after posting gains of more than 2% in the previous session.
- Qatar export: QatarEnergy has launched a tender for July-August cargoes of Al-Shaheen, Qatar Marine, and Qatar Land crude, marking its first major export offering since the US-Iran conflict began.
- Saudi Arabia supply: Saudi Aramco has officially resumed oil loadings at its Ras Tanura export terminal after a suspension lasting nearly four months.
- Geopolitical tensions: Oil prices briefly surged during Asian trading after reports of a suspected projectile attack on a cargo vessel near Oman disrupted UN evacuation efforts and renewed concerns over security in a critical shipping corridor.
- UK production: Reports indicate that UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has blocked proposals to increase North Sea oil and gas drilling to help finance higher defense spending.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: WTI remains caught between opposing forces: improving supply conditions from major Middle Eastern producers are weighing on prices, while persistent geopolitical risks continue to generate periodic volatility. Unless regional tensions escalate into significant supply disruptions, the improving export outlook is likely to keep the broader bias for crude oil tilted to the downside.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading modestly lower during Friday's European session, hovering around the 24,800-point mark.
- Bayer surge: Bayer shares recorded their biggest one-day gain in 23 years after securing a decisive victory in its long-running glyphosate litigation. The sharp rally briefly lifted the DAX above the 25,000-point threshold, highlighting the significant influence of heavyweight constituents on the index's overall performance.
- Infrastructure investment: The German Bundestag is set to vote on the Infrastructure Future Act, legislation designed to speed up the approval and implementation of major infrastructure projects.
- KNDS IPO: Germany's budget committee is expected to approve the federal government's acquisition of a 40% stake in German-French defense manufacturer KNDS, clearing the final hurdle for the company's planned initial public offering.
- Volkswagen workforce: According to reports, Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume intends to reduce the company's global workforce by up to 100,000 employees over the coming years.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX remains under modest pressure despite strong support from Bayer's legal victory, as investors continue to monitor structural changes across Germany's industrial sector. Infrastructure investment initiatives and increased defense spending provide longer-term positives, but corporate restructuring and economic uncertainty are likely to keep market sentiment cautious in the near term.