EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly higher around 1.1370, although the overall technical outlook remains negative. The pair continues to trade below its 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and well beneath the 100-day moving average, indicating that sellers remain in control despite the short-term recovery.
- Fed expectations: Markets are increasingly pricing in a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as September following last week's unexpectedly hawkish communication from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- ECB outlook: The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its June meeting, as widely expected. However, President Christine Lagarde adopted a more cautious tone by stating that the ECB does not need to respond aggressively to inflationary risks stemming from the Middle East, reducing expectations for a rapid tightening cycle.
- ECB's Schnabel: ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel emphasized that the Eurozone economy remains relatively resilient but warned that a ceasefire in the Middle East should not lead the central bank to become complacent.
- ECB policymakers: Attention now turns to speeches from ECB officials Philip Lane and Piero Cipollone, which could provide additional insight into the central bank's policy outlook.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure as expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to outweigh the ECB's gradual normalization of monetary policy. While ECB officials maintain a vigilant stance on inflation, the stronger policy outlook in the United States and the pair's weak technical structure suggest that downside risks remain dominant in the near term.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair has regained some ground during Thursday's Asian session, trading near the 1.3175 level after recent losses.
- Fiscal policy: Markets remain focused on the potential policy agenda of UK leadership contender Andy Burnham. Analysts caution that a more expansionary fiscal approach, including higher taxation and increased government borrowing through gilt issuance, could undermine confidence in UK public finances and place further pressure on the pound.
- Consumer confidence: UK consumer confidence edged higher in June, supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and reduced concerns over energy prices and inflation.
- Business community: The British Chambers of Commerce is expected to urge the incoming government to adopt more business-friendly policies to strengthen long-term economic growth. The organization argues that previous governments have constrained business investment and competitiveness.
- PCE inflation: Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is attempting to stabilize following recent losses, supported by improving UK consumer confidence but constrained by ongoing political and fiscal uncertainty. The pair's near-term direction will likely be determined by the upcoming US PCE inflation report, which could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and US Dollar strength.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold has recovered from its lowest level since November 2025, reached during the previous session, although it continues to trade below the important $4,000 psychological level.
- Oil prices: A temporary 60-day US sanctions waiver allowing the production and export of Iranian crude oil has pushed oil prices to their lowest levels since before the US-Iran conflict.
- Fed balance sheet: New York Fed official Marchioni described the recent changes to the Federal Open Market Committee's reserve language as a technical clarification rather than a shift in policy under Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Rate expectations: According to CME FedWatch pricing, investors still assign more than an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year.
- US housing data: US new home sales fell sharply to 580,000, well below expectations of 639,000, highlighting the negative impact of higher borrowing costs on the housing market.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: Gold is attempting to recover after falling to multi-month lows, but the broader outlook remains challenging as expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening and a stronger US Dollar continue to dominate market sentiment. While weaker US housing data provides an early sign of slowing economic momentum, sustained upside in XAU/USD will likely require either softer inflation data or a meaningful shift in expectations for US monetary policy.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil continues to weaken during Thursday's European session, trading near $69.00 per barrel.
- US Dollar: While supply developments remain an important market driver, the recent appreciation of the US Dollar and increasing concerns over the global economic outlook are contributing significantly to the latest sell-off.
- Strait of Hormuz: According to Bloomberg, a growing number of shipping companies are openly indicating their intention to resume voyages through the Strait of Hormuz.
- UAE oil exports: The International Energy Agency reported that the United Arab Emirates is now exporting oil at nearly 85% of its pre-war levels.
- Venezuela earthquake: Attention is also turning to Venezuela after a major earthquake reportedly caused significant damage to infrastructure. If the disruption affects oil production or exports, it could tighten global supply at the margin.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure as recovering exports from the Middle East, renewed confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and a stronger US Dollar continue to weigh on prices. Although supply risks in Venezuela could provide limited support, the overall market tone remains bearish, with concerns over global demand and improving supply conditions likely to keep crude oil under pressure in the near term.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around the 24,700-point mark during Thursday's European session, with investors adopting a cautious stance.
- Ifo survey: Germany's June Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 85.6, broadly in line with expectations, indicating a modest improvement in business sentiment.
- Consumer confidence: Germany's GfK Consumer Sentiment Index came in at -29.2, weaker than the expected -27.6 reading.
- Corporate focus: Investors are monitoring Porsche SE's annual general meeting for any strategic updates from the holding company that controls major stakes in Volkswagen and Porsche.
- Commerzbank news: Commerzbank reported that institutional investors have tendered only slightly more than 1% of shares in UniCredit's takeover offer, indicating limited early acceptance and raising uncertainty over the success of the proposed transaction.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX remains range-bound as improving business conditions are offset by fragile consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding key corporate events. Although Germany's economic indicators suggest that the slowdown may be easing, investors are likely to remain cautious until stronger evidence of sustained economic growth and greater clarity on major corporate transactions emerge.