Daily Analysis 24/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades with a positive bias around the mid-1.3600s and remains close to its highest level since February 11.
• PMI data: UK business activity exceeded expectations, with the composite PMI rising to 52.5 from 52.2, supported by a stronger services reading of 52.8.
• Consumer confidence: GfK consumer confidence improved to -14 in August from -17 previously, reaching its strongest level since August 2024. Although the indicator remains in negative territory, the improvement suggests that household sentiment is recovering and adds another positive signal for the UK economy.
• US sanctions: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to provide further details on threatened sanctions against Iran, with particular attention on whether China will be targeted.
• Russia signals: Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Moscow is open to considering new ideas for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.

Closing statement: GBP/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias, supported by stronger UK economic data and improving consumer confidence, while geopolitical developments around Iran and Ukraine remain the main risks that could trigger renewed Dollar demand and volatility.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is extending last week's breakout and has moved decisively above the technically important 200-day SMA, reaching above $4,650 during Monday's Asian session.
• Fed signals: Fed's Musalem said he wants inflation to return to the 2% target within 18 months and revealed that he favored a rate hike at the July meeting.
• US-Canada: Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on selected US imports after trade negotiations collapsed, increasing uncertainty around the US-Mexico-Canada trade framework.
• PMI data: US PMI data remained broadly positive, with the composite index indicating the fastest pace of growth since March 2022. However, manufacturing activity weakened to 53.2 from 53.9 and the order-inventory balance deteriorated, suggesting that economic momentum could be beginning to level off.
• US sanctions: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the prospect of another round of US sanctions, arguing that they would not force Tehran to change course.

Closing statement: Gold has a strongly bullish bias after breaking above both the 200-day SMA and $4,650, with technical momentum and geopolitical uncertainty supporting further gains. However, hawkish Fed expectations remain the key counterweight and could trigger profit-taking if US rate expectations shift higher.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI is trimming part of its recent gains and trades around $86.10 on Monday.
• Iran statement: Tehran said China, Turkey and other countries are expected to maintain their economic links with Iran and warned that it could halt all oil exports from the Gulf.
• Supply disruptions: Commerzbank warned that additional inventory drawdowns could drive refined-product prices even higher, while also highlighting continued upside risks in European natural gas prices.
• New exploration: Pemex and Petrobras are cooperating on exploration of ultra-deep Jurassic formations beneath Mexico's Campeche Bay, targeting what could become a significant new oil-producing region. Although
• Diesel market: European diesel prices have moved above jet fuel prices for the first time in more than a year, according to Reuters data.

Closing statement: WTI retains a bullish underlying bias despite Monday's pullback, with potential disruptions to Gulf oil exports and tight refined-product markets providing strong upside risks. However, the possibility of new supply from exploration projects and profit-taking after last week's rally could temporarily limit further gains.

• DAX 40 Price: Germany's benchmark DAX 40 is trading higher around 26,150 points this morning, recovering some ground despite mixed economic signals.
• German manufacturing: Eurozone August flash PMIs showed a clear divergence between manufacturing and services, with Germany's factory activity recording its strongest level since spring 2022.
• VW under pressure: Volkswagen shares continue to struggle, falling around 1.9% to €73.58 at the start of the week. The German automaker is facing intense competition from Chinese manufacturers, with BMW also suffering heavily, highlighting the broader structural challenges confronting Germany's automotive industry.
• Bayer news: Bayer announced that Japan's Ministry of Health has approved its targeted therapy Hyrnuo for treating non-small cell lung cancer involving a HER2 gene mutation.
• Nvidia results: Investor caution ahead of Nvidia's quarterly results on Wednesday has pushed shares of German semiconductor-related companies such as Infineon and Aixtron down around 1%.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 has a mildly bullish bias, supported by exceptionally strong German manufacturing activity and positive corporate developments at Bayer, but weakness in the automotive sector and caution ahead of Nvidia's results could limit the index's upside in the near term.